Ukraine reinforces Donetsk as it seeks to disrupt Russia’s weapons flow

Ukraine has tightened the defence of its eastern Donetsk region after Russia intensified attempts to seize Sloviansk, a key city in the Ukrainian “fortress belt” that also includes Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka. On 26 August, Ukrainian commander‑in‑chief Mykhailo Drapatyi ordered the reinforcement of two units tasked with protecting Sloviansk. Russian forces have been reported to have penetrated the outskirts of Kostiantynivka, though Ukrainian observers say the city remains largely in Kyiv’s hands. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that 70‑80 % of Russian casualties were occurring at the Kostiantynivka front and estimated that Russian losses this year total 267 000, with at least 155 000 killed.

Russian military leadership has claimed its troops are within four kilometres of Sloviansk, but independent analyses from Deep State and the Institute for the Study of War place Russian forces 12‑16 km from the city. In response, Ukraine has been targeting Russian supply lines, storage sites, airfields and transport routes to curb the flow of men, munitions and fuel. The Institute for the Study of War estimates that Russia has lost 27 km² of territory in August alone and 233 km² this year.

Since 20 August, Ukrainian forces have struck a series of Russian military infrastructure sites. They destroyed 18 buildings storing aerial drones at the Primorsko‑Akhtarsk airfield in Krasnodar Krai, a Sukhoi‑24 fighter at the Saky airfield in Crimea, and two aircraft – a Sukhoi‑33 and a MiG‑29 – at Vityazevo airfield, as well as an Orion reconnaissance drone. An oil trans‑shipment terminal at Yeisk was also hit. On 24 August, a MiG‑29 at Millerovo airfield in Rostov was destroyed. Ukrainian strikes have also targeted ballistic missile launchers, radar complexes and 242 Russian military supply vessels.

In Crimea, Ukraine has damaged 267 power stations and substations over six weeks, causing a near‑blackout across the peninsula. Crimea’s head of administration, Sergey Aksyonov, acknowledged technical difficulties preventing a quick resolution. Ukrainian unmanned systems commander Robert Brovdi reported that Crimean households and businesses receive electricity for only about an hour a day.

Ukraine’s long‑range attacks have repeatedly struck Russian refineries and gas processing plants. Since early June, the country has hit 31 refineries, including the Akhtubinsk refinery, the Astrakhan gas plant, Lukoil refineries in Perm and Nizhny Novgorod, the Novokuybyshevsk refinery in Samara, and the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar. Russian industrial leaders estimate that Ukrainian drone strikes have removed 25‑30 % of Russia’s oil refining capacity, a figure corroborated by the Financial Times. The strikes have also damaged major distribution centres of Russia’s largest online retailers, inflicting an estimated 3 trillion roubles ($35 bn) in damage and affecting companies such as Wildberries and Ozon.

Russia has responded with strikes on Ukrainian cities, claiming retaliation against attacks on its civilian industrial and logistics facilities. President Vladimir Putin has said the Kyiv regime has “opened Pandora’s box” by targeting the Russian economy. Ukrainian ports such as Odesa and Chernomorsk have been hit, disrupting grain exports, while Russian forces have targeted border crossings with Moldova. Many of these strikes have hit residential areas, causing civilian casualties far from the front lines. On 21 August, a drone attack in Kryvyi Rih killed 16 people and injured 130; on 27 August, residential buildings in Poltava, Sumy and Kherson were struck, injuring several people.

Ukraine’s air defence has struggled to intercept Russian ballistic missiles due to a shortage of Patriot missiles. The United States has declined to provide Ukraine with a significant portion of its Patriot stockpile, and the country’s production rate has been deemed insufficient for winter needs. In July, the NATO summit saw the US grant Ukraine licences to build Patriot interceptors, but the offer was later rescinded. Zelenskyy has expressed concern about Russia’s potential to produce up to 1 300 ballistic missiles per year and has pledged to prevent that capability.

To counter the threat, Ukraine has shifted its strategy from intercepting missiles to targeting the production and launch infrastructure of Russian ballistic missiles. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham handed Ukrainian President Zelenskyy blueprints for the Storm Shadow cruise missile, also known as SCALP, on 24 August. The move has angered Russia, which views the transfer as a direct threat to its missile capabilities. Ukrainian officials plan to produce their own ballistic missiles by next year, with a timetable expected by early September, while continuing to strike Russian missile launchers and radar sites wherever possible.