Factcheck: Conservative Energy Plan Riddled with Flaws, Say Experts

The UK Conservative Party’s energy strategy, outlined in a new report by center-right think tank Onward, faces scrutiny over its claims that scrapping net-zero policies could slash electricity costs and boost electrification. The report, titled “Cheap Power,” argues that abandoning net-zero targets would make electricity more affordable, encouraging wider adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps while reducing emissions. However, independent analysis suggests the proposal would instead lead to higher carbon emissions and undermine climate goals.

The Conservative Party, led by shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho, has seized on the report’s findings, claiming that current net-zero policies are “bankrupting” the UK and that scrapping them could save over £320 billion by 2050. The report’s alternative policy pathway (APP) assumes the UK abandons its 2050 net-zero target after the 2029 election, prioritizing cheaper electricity through reduced renewable energy investment and greater reliance on gas and nuclear power.

Experts, however, have identified significant flaws in the report’s assumptions. Iain Staffell, an associate professor of sustainable energy at Imperial College London, described the modeling as having “more holes than a Swiss cheese,” while other analysts argue that the report’s conclusions would reverse if more credible assumptions were applied. Under the APP, the UK would emit an additional 524 million tonnes of CO2 between 2030 and 2050—equivalent to South Africa’s annual emissions—due to increased gas use and slower electrification of transport and heating.

The report’s claim that cheaper electricity would accelerate EV and heat pump adoption is undermined by its own modeling, which shows slower uptake of these technologies without government subsidies or mandates, such as the boiler upgrade scheme or the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars. Instead, the APP reduces overall electricity demand by 7%, partly by relying on higher fossil fuel consumption in place of electrification.

Critics also highlight the report’s unrealistic gas price assumptions. The scenario assumes gas prices will remain low and stable despite recent volatility driven by geopolitical conflicts, such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Ashutosh Padelkar, research lead at Aurora Energy Research, called these assumptions “hard to fathom,” noting they contradict market expectations. Earlier analysis by E3G and the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimated that energy price spikes from 2021 to 2025 cost the UK £183 billion.

Additionally, the report overlooks key costs, such as the £65-95 billion in extra fuel spending for petrol and diesel vehicles if EV adoption slows. The only sector expected to see increased electricity demand under the APP is data centers, yet the report fails to account for the costs of accelerating their grid connections.

Rather than scrapping net-zero policies, analysts suggest shifting levies from electricity to gas or decoupling wholesale gas prices from electricity costs to address the “spark gap”—the price disparity between electricity and gas that discourages heat pump adoption. The Conservative proposal, critics argue, would leave the UK more exposed to fossil fuel price shocks while failing to deliver on its climate and economic promises.

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