Iceland heads to the polls in knife-edge vote on restarting EU talks

Iceland is holding a closely watched referendum Saturday on whether to restart negotiations to join the European Union, a decision that could reshape the country’s economic and security ties amid rising Arctic tensions.

The vote comes more than a decade after Iceland paused EU accession talks in 2013 under a eurosceptic government, which opted to pursue deeper integration through the European Economic Area and Schengen Zone instead. With Russia’s war in Ukraine intensifying regional instability and former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recurrent threats toward Greenland, Iceland now faces renewed pressure to enhance its security posture and stabilize its economy.

Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir and her Social Democrats support EU accession. She has pledged to respect the public’s choice, stating that a “yes” vote would allow Iceland to negotiate from “a position of strength.” A “no” outcome, she said, would end speculation about EU membership. Recent polls show the country deeply divided. A Gallup survey this week found 51.6 percent opposed to restarting talks, while 48.4 percent supported them. Earlier data from Maskina showed a narrow 51.3 percent majority in favor.

Security experts point to Iceland’s lack of a standing military and its reliance on NATO and U.S. defense guarantees as key factors in the debate. “Iceland has always depended on NATO and the U.S. for security,” said Gabriella Gricius, associate professor at the Norwegian Military Academy. “As U.S. commitments have grown unpredictable, especially regarding Greenland, Iceland may seek additional security assurances through the EU.”

Economic concerns are also central. Iceland’s inflation rate in 2025 surpassed all EU member states and was 87 percent higher than the EU average. The volatile Icelandic krona has weakened investor confidence and raised borrowing costs. A government report earlier this year concluded that maintaining the krona likely costs more than adopting the euro. Joining the EU could help stabilize prices, integrate Iceland into the EU customs union, and facilitate smoother trade across Europe.

Yet the fishing industry remains a major sticking point. In 2024, the sector contributed about 8 percent of Iceland’s GDP and supports thousands of jobs. Under the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy, Iceland could face stricter catch quotas and increased competition from other EU fleets, potentially reducing domestic control over one of the country’s economic pillars. “The core objection is losing autonomy over fisheries policy,” said Valur Ingimundarson, professor of contemporary history at the University of Iceland. Even if Iceland votes to resume talks, he added, it would likely demand “ironclad” exemptions for its fishing sector before proceeding further.

Iceland’s Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Gunnarsdottir has framed EU membership as a strategic asset, noting it would complement NATO and U.S. security ties. She highlighted concerns over U.S. pressure on Greenland and Russia’s growing military presence in the North Atlantic. “Iceland has been disappointed by the U.S. pressure campaign against Greenland and Denmark,” she said. “Russia poses a threat in our waters and nearby in the North Atlantic.” For the EU, Iceland’s membership would expand its presence deeper into the Arctic, adding it to the list of EU member states in the region, alongside Finland, Sweden, and Denmark.

As Icelanders head to the polls, the outcome remains uncertain. Whether they vote to restart negotiations or reject them, the decision will have far-reaching consequences for Iceland’s economic stability, political sovereignty, and role in an increasingly contested Arctic.

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