Trump threats overshadow Brazil’s presidential election

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially launched his campaign for a fourth and final term on August 14 in São Bernardo do Campo, where he addressed thousands of supporters at May 1st Stadium. The former president, who previously served from 2003 to 2010 and returned to office in 2022, emphasized continued investment in education, healthcare, and job creation while condemning poverty in Brazil.

“What kind of future do you want for the Brazilian people if you don’t invest in education? What future do you want for the Brazilian people if you don’t invest in health? What future do you want if you don’t invest in jobs?” Lula asked the crowd.

Lula’s supporters, many of whom credit his earlier administrations with lifting millions out of poverty, expressed strong backing. Raimunda Silva Santos, 76, said Lula had “changed the life of my whole family,” while Valmir Lima, representing the Movement of People Affected by Dams, predicted victory “with the strength of social movements.”

Lula’s opponent in the October 2 elections is Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, who is running in place of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. The elder Bolsonaro, currently under house arrest after being convicted of attempting a coup to overturn his 2022 electoral defeat, faces multiple legal restrictions preventing him from running.

Flavio Bolsonaro launched his campaign in Rio de Janeiro in March, appealing to evangelical voters with religious rhetoric. At the U.S. Conservative Political Action Conference, he declared, “We will win,” positioning himself as a champion of conservative values, crime reduction, privatization, and strengthened U.S.-Brazil ties.

His campaign has drawn significant support from U.S. President Donald Trump, a longtime ally of Jair Bolsonaro. Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods last year and recently revoked the U.S. visa of Brazil’s ambassador. He also met with Flavio Bolsonaro at the White House in May.

Igor Fuser, a professor of international relations at ABC Federal University, characterized Trump’s actions as part of a broader strategy to assert U.S. dominance over Latin America, comparing it to Cold War Soviet control over Eastern Europe.

“Brazil is the latest battleground,” Fuser said. “If Lula wins, we will live through a period of intense confrontation. If Flavio Bolsonaro wins, Brazil will become a virtual colony of the United States.”

Brazil has taken steps to counter perceived U.S. interference, including denying visas to State Department officials suspected of undermining electoral confidence. Lula, known for opposing U.S. intervention in Latin America, has accused Trump of attempting to influence the Brazilian vote.

With two months remaining until the election, the campaign has become a focal point in the broader struggle over regional sovereignty amid rising U.S. pressure across Latin America.