UK's weaker EV targets could cost consumers £3bn yearly by 2030, analysis warns

The UK government is considering weakening electric vehicle targets, which could cost consumers up to £3 billion annually by 2030, according to an analysis by Carbon Brief. The proposed changes to the Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, introduced under the previous Conservative government, could also increase the UK’s oil imports and carbon emissions.

Under the current ZEV mandate, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) must account for 33% of new car sales in 2026, rising to 80% by 2030. However, reports suggest the new Labour government, led by Prime Minister Andy Burnham, may reduce the 2030 target to just 50%, with possible alternatives of 60% or 70%. A consultation on this proposal is reportedly under review by the prime minister’s office before its formal release.

If the mandate is weakened to 50% by 2030 and carmakers utilize more flexibilities, there could be up to 3 million fewer BEVs on UK roads by that year, according to Transport & Environment (T&E). Carbon Brief’s analysis indicates that BEVs are already cheaper to run than petrol cars, saving drivers around £1,100 per year in fuel costs. Overall, BEVs are more than £1,000 cheaper per year to own compared to petrol cars or plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), when factoring in purchase price, fuel costs, insurance, and proposed pay-per-mile charges.

A weaker ZEV mandate could result in an additional £3 billion in annual ownership costs for UK drivers by 2030. It could also put billions of pounds of committed investments at risk, including those in EV charging infrastructure and battery supply chains. Energy UK, an industry group, argues that the mandate is functioning as intended and remains the “single biggest driver of emissions reductions” in the government’s climate plans.

However, Carbon Brief’s analysis warns that a weaker ZEV mandate could lead to an extra 7.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions (MtCO2) in 2030, equivalent to a 2.5% increase in the UK’s national emissions that year. Additionally, the UK might need to import an extra 17 million barrels of oil in 2030, representing an 8% rise in projected net oil imports.

Energy UK emphasizes that shifting to EVs benefits all households by reducing energy bills through cost-of-ownership savings for EV drivers and spreading the costs of upgrading the electricity system. Meanwhile, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) claims its members are spending billions on discounts and incentives to boost EV demand, asserting that natural demand is insufficient to meet current targets. These claims have been disputed.

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