Nigeria's PDP Struggles for Survival Ahead of 2025 Elections

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), once Nigeria’s dominant political force, faces a critical juncture ahead of the upcoming 2027 general election as internal divisions and leadership crises threaten its survival. Founded in 1998, the PDP governed Nigeria for 16 consecutive years, producing three presidents: Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, and Goodluck Jonathan. However, its influence has waned significantly since losing the presidency to Muhammadu Buhari and the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2015. Now, with the January 2027 election approaching, the party risks political irrelevance amid escalating factional conflicts and mass defections.

The PDP’s decline accelerated in 2025 when five state governors—representing Delta, Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Bayelsa, and Rivers—defected to the APC, citing the party’s weakening influence and dwindling electoral prospects. The loss of these key states reduced the PDP’s gubernatorial presence from eight to just three, with Oyo state slipping away this year. High-profile departures, including that of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike, have further weakened the party. Wike, a founding PDP member, now leads a rival faction recognized by Nigerian courts as the legitimate party leadership, complicating the PDP’s electoral participation.

Internal power struggles and a contentious November 2025 national convention in Ibadan, Oyo State, have paralyzed the party. The convention expelled Wike, who had allegedly assisted the APC in securing Rivers State during the last presidential election—a move seen by some as betrayal. While Wike’s faction has submitted candidates to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the rival group remains sidelined, with no representation on the ballot. Political analyst Ishaq Buhari described the PDP’s transition to opposition as a struggle, stating, “They were a party so used to power that being in opposition was a new challenge they struggled with from the start.”

Despite the turmoil, some PDP loyalists remain hopeful. Aminu Adamu, a party member aligned against Wike, believes the PDP can recover if it resolves internal disputes. “We have seen parties bounce back in Thailand and Argentina,” he said, suggesting a path to revival by 2032. Others point to the PDP’s grassroots network as a potential asset, though its fractured state may erode public trust ahead of the election. Analyst Deji Olarenwaju argues that the PDP’s only viable path forward may be an alliance with smaller opposition parties like the African Democratic Congress (ADC) or Peter Obi’s Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), stating, “On their own, they are going nowhere.”

With the PDP’s future uncertain and candidates from rival factions likely to confuse voters, the party’s ability to regain its former strength appears increasingly unlikely. Unless decisive action is taken, the once-mighty PDP may face political extinction in Nigeria’s evolving democratic landscape.

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