Syria's deal with Kurdish forces collapses Israel's divide-and-conquer strategy

Syria's President Bashar al-Assad secured a major political win last week as his government reached a breakthrough agreement with Kurdish forces, shifting focus from regime survival to reshaping the country’s internal structure. The deal between the Syrian government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) effectively collapsed Israel’s long-standing divide-and-conquer strategy in northeastern Syria, where Kurdish autonomy had previously served as a buffer against Iranian influence.

The Syrian government’s rapprochement with the SDF, which controls large parts of northeastern Syria including oil-rich regions such as Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa, comes after years of strained relations. The agreement grants limited autonomy to Kurdish-majority areas while reasserting Damascus’s control over key institutions, including border crossings and oil fields. Analysts say this move is part of Assad’s broader effort to reintegrate the country under central authority following a decade of civil war and foreign intervention.

Israel has long relied on Kurdish self-rule in eastern Syria as a counterbalance to Iran’s military presence near the Golan Heights. The Israeli government has reportedly supported Kurdish factions to prevent Iran from establishing a contiguous land corridor from Iraq to Lebanon. With the SDF now aligning with Damascus, analysts warn that Israel’s strategic leverage in the region has weakened significantly.

The collapse of Israel’s strategy follows a broader regional shift. Turkey, a key NATO ally of the West, has also softened its stance toward Assad, with recent diplomatic overtures signaling a potential normalization of relations. Meanwhile, the United States, which has historically backed Kurdish forces as part of its anti-ISIS campaign, has gradually reduced its military footprint in Syria, further isolating Kurdish factions.

Syrian state media confirmed the deal last week, though details remain limited. Kurdish officials have cautiously welcomed the agreement but insist on safeguarding local governance structures. The Syrian government, in turn, has emphasized national unity and the return of public services to formerly opposition-held areas.

Regional powers are closely watching the developments. Iran, a key ally of Assad, has praised the deal as a step toward stability, while Israel has yet to publicly respond. The deal also raises questions about the future of foreign military presence in Syria, including that of Russia, which has played a major role in supporting Assad’s forces throughout the conflict.

As Syria moves toward a fragile peace, the collapse of Israel’s divide-and-conquer approach marks a turning point in the country’s post-war trajectory. The agreement between Damascus and the SDF could redefine regional power dynamics, particularly in the struggle for influence between Israel and Iran.

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